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Caernarfon Town vs Penybont Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:45

Caernarfon Town

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Penybont

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.3%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.8%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 25.9% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 47.5% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caernarfon Town1.6

Penybont1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CAERNARFON TOWN · PPG 1.38

PENYBONT · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Caernarfon Town (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Penybont (A) 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Caernarfon Town face Penybont in Wales - Premier League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caernarfon Town a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Penybont 26%, so Caernarfon Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Caernarfon Town and 1.1 for Penybont (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caernarfon Town are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.33 for Penybont.

Caernarfon Town vs Penybont Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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