Today / Wales - Premier League / Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay

Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:15

Caernarfon Town

PPG 1.15 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colwyn Bay

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.1%0-26.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.7%1-111.5%1-28.6%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.2%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.6%3-13.9%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 41.7% 2.40 -12.6%

Draw 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -3.5%

Away win 35.8% 39.2% 2.55 -8.7%

Over 2.5 53.7% 58.8% 1.70 -8.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 37.0% 2.70 -14.1%

BTTS 54.5% 64.5% 1.55 -15.5%

Home O1.5 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

Away O1.5 46.7% 46.5% 2.15 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.5%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caernarfon Town1.4

Colwyn Bay1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CAERNARFON TOWN · PPG 1.15

COLWYN BAY · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Caernarfon Town (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -12.6%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.5%

Colwyn Bay (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caernarfon Town face Colwyn Bay in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caernarfon Town a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Colwyn Bay 36%, so Caernarfon Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Caernarfon Town and 1.5 for Colwyn Bay (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caernarfon Town are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.35 for Colwyn Bay. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +0.4%.

Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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