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The New Saints vs Briton Ferry Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:45

The New Saints

PPG 2.26 · HOME

UPCOMING

Briton Ferry

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.2%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-110.1%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.5%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.0%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 85.5% 1.17 -37.6%

Draw 24.4% 16.7% 6.00 +27.8%

Away win 22.2% 7.7% 13.00 +113.2%

Over 2.5 52.9% 72.5% 1.38 -27.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 51.3% 1.95 -38.0%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 54.6% 83.3% 1.20 -34.5%

Away O1.5 26.2% 20.0% 5.00 +18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The New Saints2.0

Briton Ferry0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

THE NEW SAINTS · PPG 2.26

BRITON FERRY · PPG 1.48

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

The New Saints (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -37.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +27.8%

Briton Ferry (A) 22.2%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +113.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

The New Saints face Briton Ferry in Wales - Premier League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The New Saints a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Briton Ferry 22%, so The New Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for The New Saints and 0.9 for Briton Ferry (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The New Saints are averaging 2.26 points per game versus 1.48 for Briton Ferry. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +99.6%.

The New Saints vs Briton Ferry Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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