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Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Caernarfon Town

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

The New Saints

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.9%0-28.2%0-35.0%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.7%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.4%2-16.3%2-25.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 15.4% 6.50 +46.5%

Draw 23.4% 23.8% 4.20 -1.0%

Away win 49.2% 71.4% 1.40 -31.1%

Over 2.5 61.6% 61.7% 1.62 -0.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 40.0% 2.50 +0.5%

BTTS 61.5% 58.8% 1.70 +4.5%

Home O1.5 33.0% 26.7% 3.75 +23.8%

Away O1.5 58.2% 69.0% 1.45 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.5%

A 49% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caernarfon Town1.2

The New Saints1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CAERNARFON TOWN · PPG 1.41

THE NEW SAINTS · PPG 2.13

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.65 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Caernarfon Town (H) 27.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +46.5%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.0%

The New Saints (A) 49.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -31.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caernarfon Town face The New Saints in Wales - Premier League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caernarfon Town a 27% chance, the draw 23% and The New Saints 49%, so The New Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Caernarfon Town and 1.8 for The New Saints (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caernarfon Town are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 2.13 for The New Saints. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +43.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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