Today / Wales - Premier League / Cardiff MET vs Cambrian & Clydach

Cardiff MET vs Cambrian & Clydach Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Cardiff MET

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

UPCOMING

Cambrian & Clydach

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.1%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.5%1-19.8%1-26.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.6%2-26.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.7%3-16.2%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 56.5% 1.77 -10.4%

Draw 22.5% 27.0% 3.70 -10.1%

Away win 27.0% 26.7% 3.75 +0.8%

Over 2.5 63.7% 60.6% 1.65 +5.1%

Over 3.5 40.5% 38.5% 2.60 +5.3%

BTTS 62.0% 63.7% 1.57 -2.7%

Home O1.5 55.8% 59.9% 1.67 -6.8%

Away O1.5 40.6% 37.0% 2.70 +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.0%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cardiff MET1.9

Cambrian & Clydach1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CARDIFF MET · PPG 1.53

CAMBRIAN & CLYDACH · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cardiff MET (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -10.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.1%

Cambrian & Clydach (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cardiff MET face Cambrian & Clydach in Wales - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cardiff MET a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Cambrian & Clydach 27%, so Cardiff MET are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Cardiff MET and 1.3 for Cambrian & Clydach (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cardiff MET are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.31 for Cambrian & Clydach. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%.

Cardiff MET vs Cambrian & Clydach Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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