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Cardiff MET vs The New Saints Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Cardiff MET

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

The New Saints

PPG 1.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-111.6%0-28.3%0-34.0%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.7%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.7%2-16.8%2-24.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 14.3% 7.00 +128.9%

Draw 26.2% 22.7% 4.40 +9.2%

Away win 41.2% 73.5% 1.36 -44.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 61.7% 1.62 -18.7%

Over 3.5 28.4% 40.0% 2.50 -17.4%

BTTS 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Home O1.5 30.6% 25.0% 4.00 +22.4%

Away O1.5 41.2% 70.4% 1.42 -41.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.0%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 0–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cardiff MET1.1

The New Saints1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CARDIFF MET · PPG 1.54

THE NEW SAINTS · PPG 1.99

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cardiff MET (H) 32.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +128.9%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +9.2%

The New Saints (A) 41.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -44.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cardiff MET face The New Saints in Wales - Premier League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cardiff MET a 33% chance, the draw 26% and The New Saints 41%, so The New Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cardiff MET and 1.4 for The New Saints (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cardiff MET are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.99 for The New Saints. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +45.6%. This match finished 0-5.

Cardiff MET vs The New Saints Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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