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The New Saints vs Haverfordwest County AFC Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:45

The New Saints

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Haverfordwest County AFC

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-16.5%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.5%1-111.0%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.3%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 20.6% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 49.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 11.0%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The New Saints1.7

Haverfordwest County AFC0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

THE NEW SAINTS · PPG 2.11

HAVERFORDWEST COUNTY AFC · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

The New Saints (H) 55.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Haverfordwest County AFC (A) 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

The New Saints face Haverfordwest County AFC in Wales - Premier League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The New Saints a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Haverfordwest County AFC 21%, so The New Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for The New Saints and 0.8 for Haverfordwest County AFC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The New Saints are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.36 for Haverfordwest County AFC.

The New Saints vs Haverfordwest County AFC Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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