Today / Wales - Premier League / Briton Ferry vs Barry Town

Briton Ferry vs Barry Town Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 13:30

Briton Ferry

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Barry Town

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.8%0-27.7%0-34.1%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.4%1-111.8%1-29.3%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.5%2-17.1%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.8%3-12.8%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

Draw 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Away win 47.4% 52.4% 1.91 -9.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.5% 2.60 -17.6%

BTTS 54.9% 64.5% 1.55 -14.9%

Home O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.5% 1.77 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.9%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Briton Ferry1.2

Barry Town1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BRITON FERRY · PPG 1.58

BARRY TOWN · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Briton Ferry (H) 28.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.2%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Barry Town (A) 47.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Briton Ferry face Barry Town in Wales - Premier League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Briton Ferry a 29% chance, the draw 24% and Barry Town 47%, so Barry Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Briton Ferry and 1.6 for Barry Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Briton Ferry are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.81 for Barry Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Briton Ferry vs Barry Town Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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