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Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:45

Haverfordwest County AFC

PPG 1.32 · HOME

UPCOMING

Penybont

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.9%0-26.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.3%1-112.9%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.1%2-17.7%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.4%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 35.7% 2.80 -1.7%

Draw 30.4% 31.3% 3.20 -2.7%

Away win 34.5% 42.6% 2.35 -18.9%

Over 2.5 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Over 3.5 28.6% 27.0% 3.70 +3.5%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 31.7% 37.0% 2.70 -14.4%

Away O1.5 36.6% 42.6% 2.35 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.2%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haverfordwest County AFC1.2

Penybont1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAVERFORDWEST COUNTY AFC · PPG 1.32

PENYBONT · PPG 1.61

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.07, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Haverfordwest County AFC (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -1.7%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.7%

Penybont (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haverfordwest County AFC face Penybont in Wales - Premier League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haverfordwest County AFC a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Penybont 35%, so Haverfordwest County AFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Haverfordwest County AFC and 1.3 for Penybont (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haverfordwest County AFC are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.61 for Penybont. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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