Today / Wales - Premier League / GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

GAP Connah S Quay FC

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Haverfordwest County AFC

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.4%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-18.0%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.3%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.3%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-17.4%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Draw 19.1% 22.7% 4.40 -9.6%

Away win 13.6% 16.7% 6.00 -11.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 39.2% 2.55 -7.2%

BTTS 50.4% 57.1% 1.75 -11.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 69.0% 1.45 -3.9%

Away O1.5 19.1% 26.7% 3.75 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.4%

H 67% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GAP Connah S Quay FC2.3

Haverfordwest County AFC0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GAP CONNAH S QUAY FC · PPG 1.81

HAVERFORDWEST COUNTY AFC · PPG 0.97

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 1.81 vs 0.97 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

GAP Connah S Quay FC (H) 67.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -5.8%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -9.6%

Haverfordwest County AFC (A) 13.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

GAP Connah S Quay FC face Haverfordwest County AFC in Wales - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GAP Connah S Quay FC a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Haverfordwest County AFC 14%, so GAP Connah S Quay FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for GAP Connah S Quay FC and 0.7 for Haverfordwest County AFC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GAP Connah S Quay FC are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.97 for Haverfordwest County AFC. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +1.4%.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - Premier League Predictions