Today / Wales - Premier League / Cardiff MET vs Briton Ferry

Cardiff MET vs Briton Ferry Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Cardiff MET

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Briton Ferry

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.6%0-25.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.5%1-111.3%1-28.5%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.3%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.7%3-14.1%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 46.5% 2.15 -21.3%

Draw 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -7.9%

Away win 38.6% 35.1% 2.85 +10.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 34.5% 38.5% 2.60 -10.3%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 40.1% 52.6% 1.90 -23.8%

Away O1.5 43.8% 45.5% 2.20 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.4%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cardiff MET1.5

Briton Ferry1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CARDIFF MET · PPG 1.32

BRITON FERRY · PPG 1.49

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cardiff MET (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -21.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.9%

Briton Ferry (A) 38.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cardiff MET face Briton Ferry in Wales - Premier League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cardiff MET a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Briton Ferry 39%, so Briton Ferry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cardiff MET and 1.5 for Briton Ferry (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cardiff MET are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.49 for Briton Ferry. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Cardiff MET vs Briton Ferry Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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