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Holywell vs Trefelin Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Holywell

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Trefelin

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.5%0-23.0%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.6%1-17.7%1-26.5%1-33.6%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.7%3-16.1%3-25.1%3-32.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.6%4+-24.7%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 34.7% 2.88 +29.3%

Draw 20.8% 27.0% 3.70 -13.8%

Away win 34.3% 48.8% 2.05 -29.7%

Over 2.5 68.4% 65.4% 1.53 +4.7%

Over 3.5 49.4% 42.6% 2.35 +16.1%

BTTS 64.3% 69.0% 1.45 -6.8%

Home O1.5 65.7% 47.6% 2.10 +38.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.1% 1.75 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob64.3%

H 45% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holywell2.2

Trefelin1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLYWELL · PPG 0.94

TREFELIN · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Holywell (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +29.3%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.8%

Trefelin (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Holywell face Trefelin in Wales - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holywell a 45% chance, the draw 21% and Trefelin 34%, so Holywell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Holywell and 1.7 for Trefelin (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holywell are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.94 for Trefelin. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +66.0%.

Holywell vs Trefelin Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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