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Caernarfon Town vs Flint Town United Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Caernarfon Town

PPG 1.24 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

UPCOMING

Flint Town United

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.2%0-22.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.3%1-19.0%1-25.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.6%3-16.9%3-24.3%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-16.1%4+-23.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 67.6% 1.48 -19.0%

Draw 21.9% 22.7% 4.40 -2.2%

Away win 23.4% 19.2% 5.20 +13.0%

Over 2.5 65.0% 67.6% 1.48 -3.8%

Over 3.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 61.7% 70.4% 1.42 -12.4%

Away O1.5 36.8% 33.3% 3.00 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caernarfon Town2.1

Flint Town United1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CAERNARFON TOWN · PPG 1.24

FLINT TOWN UNITED · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Caernarfon Town (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -19.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.2%

Flint Town United (A) 23.4%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caernarfon Town face Flint Town United in Wales - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caernarfon Town a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Flint Town United 23%, so Caernarfon Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Caernarfon Town and 1.2 for Flint Town United (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caernarfon Town are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 0.98 for Flint Town United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.0%.

Caernarfon Town vs Flint Town United Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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