Today / Wales - Premier League / Briton Ferry vs Airbus UK

Briton Ferry vs Airbus UK Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Briton Ferry

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

UPCOMING

Airbus UK

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.5%0-26.4%0-33.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.8%1-111.6%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-18.0%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.4%3-13.7%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 51.3% 1.95 -31.9%

Draw 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Away win 41.6% 32.3% 3.10 +29.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Over 3.5 36.5% 42.6% 2.35 -14.2%

BTTS 61.5% 69.0% 1.45 -10.8%

Home O1.5 39.5% 58.8% 1.70 -32.9%

Away O1.5 43.4% 45.5% 2.20 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.5%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Briton Ferry1.4

Airbus UK1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRITON FERRY · PPG 1.36

AIRBUS UK · PPG 1.31

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Briton Ferry (H) 34.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -31.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Airbus UK (A) 41.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Briton Ferry face Airbus UK in Wales - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Briton Ferry a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Airbus UK 42%, so Airbus UK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Briton Ferry and 1.5 for Airbus UK (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Briton Ferry are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.31 for Airbus UK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.5%.

Briton Ferry vs Airbus UK Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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