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Penybont vs Flint Town United Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Penybont

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Flint Town United

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.0%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.0%1-110.8%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.0%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 62.5% 1.60 -13.4%

Draw 23.6% 25.3% 3.95 -4.1%

Away win 22.3% 22.2% 4.50 +0.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 38.5% 2.60 -17.3%

BTTS 53.6% 60.6% 1.65 -11.6%

Home O1.5 51.4% 63.7% 1.57 -19.3%

Away O1.5 29.4% 32.3% 3.10 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penybont1.8

Flint Town United1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PENYBONT · PPG 1.60

FLINT TOWN UNITED · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Penybont (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -13.4%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.1%

Flint Town United (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penybont face Flint Town United in Wales - Premier League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penybont a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Flint Town United 22%, so Penybont are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Penybont and 1.0 for Flint Town United (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penybont are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.98 for Flint Town United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Penybont vs Flint Town United Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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