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The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

The New Saints

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Colwyn Bay

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-15.1%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-19.7%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.8%3-15.9%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-14.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 80.0% 1.25 -20.3%

Draw 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 +3.3%

Away win 15.2% 10.3% 9.75 +28.9%

Over 2.5 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Over 3.5 31.2% 36.4% 2.75 -14.2%

BTTS 47.2% 46.5% 2.15 +1.5%

Home O1.5 56.3% 71.4% 1.40 -21.2%

Away O1.5 18.2% 16.7% 6.00 +5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 64% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The New Saints1.9

Colwyn Bay0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

THE NEW SAINTS · PPG 2.36

COLWYN BAY · PPG 1.16

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

The New Saints (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -20.3%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.3%

Colwyn Bay (A) 15.2%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

The New Saints face Colwyn Bay in Wales - Premier League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The New Saints a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Colwyn Bay 15%, so The New Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for The New Saints and 0.7 for Colwyn Bay (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The New Saints are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.16 for Colwyn Bay. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +31.2%. This match finished 5-1.

The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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