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Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 13:30

Flint Town United

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

GAP Connah S Quay FC

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-18.9%0-29.5%0-36.8%0-4+5.9%1 1-04.4%1-19.3%1-29.9%1-37.0%1-4+6.2%2 2-02.3%2-14.8%2-25.2%2-33.7%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.8%3-11.7%3-21.8%3-31.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.7% 21.7% 4.60 -16.7%

Draw 20.1% 27.0% 3.70 -15.4%

Away win 64.2% 61.0% 1.64 +5.3%

Over 2.5 59.8% 58.8% 1.70 +1.7%

Over 3.5 37.1% 37.0% 2.70 +0.2%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.5%

Away O1.5 58.6% 60.6% 1.65 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob52.9%

A 64% / xG 1.0-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.9%

#2 0–2 9.5%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 1–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flint Town United1.0

GAP Connah S Quay FC2.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FLINT TOWN UNITED · PPG 0.78

GAP CONNAH S QUAY FC · PPG 2.07

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.09 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Flint Town United (H) 15.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -16.7%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -15.4%

GAP Connah S Quay FC (A) 64.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flint Town United face GAP Connah S Quay FC in Wales - Premier League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flint Town United a 16% chance, the draw 20% and GAP Connah S Quay FC 64%, so GAP Connah S Quay FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Flint Town United and 2.1 for GAP Connah S Quay FC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flint Town United are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 2.07 for GAP Connah S Quay FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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