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Barry Town vs Cardiff MET Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:30

Barry Town

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cardiff MET

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.2%0-25.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.9%1-110.9%1-28.6%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.2%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.6%3-14.1%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 46.5% 2.15 -17.9%

Draw 26.8% 28.6% 3.50 -3.7%

Away win 34.9% 35.1% 2.85 -0.5%

Over 2.5 53.7% 58.8% 1.70 -8.7%

Over 3.5 34.1% 36.4% 2.75 -6.2%

BTTS 54.5% 64.5% 1.55 -15.5%

Home O1.5 45.1% 51.3% 1.95 -12.1%

Away O1.5 47.3% 43.5% 2.30 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.5%

A 35% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barry Town1.5

Cardiff MET1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRY TOWN · PPG 1.80

CARDIFF MET · PPG 1.61

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barry Town (H) 38.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -17.9%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.7%

Cardiff MET (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barry Town face Cardiff MET in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barry Town a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Cardiff MET 35%, so Barry Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Barry Town and 1.6 for Cardiff MET (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barry Town are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.61 for Cardiff MET. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.5%.

Barry Town vs Cardiff MET Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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