Leagues / USA / USL League One

USL League One

USA · 70 MATCHES TRACKED · 22 JUL 2026 – 6 SEPT 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

Upcoming USL League One predictions

7 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

5 SEPT23:00 Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Greenville Triumph HO1.5 — — —5 SEPT23:30 Fort Wayne vs NY Cosmos Home 68% 1.67 +14%5 SEPT23:30 Sarasota Paradise vs Spokane Velocity BTTS 55% 1.75 -3%5 SEPT23:30 Naples vs Boise BTTS 62% 1.57 -3%6 SEPT00:00 Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independence Over 2.5 64% 1.36 -13%6 SEPT00:30 Corpus Christi vs Forward Madison BTTS 55% 1.62 -12%6 SEPT02:30 Alta vs One Knoxville Over 2.5 60% 1.80 +7%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 59 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

45.8%

1X2

27/59

62.7%

O/U 2.5

37/59

61.0%

BTTS

36/59

39.0%

Exact score

23/59

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

55.9%

Hit rate

19/34

1.72

Avg odds

-4.5%

ROI

-1.5u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME O1.5 · N=14 57.1% HIT · AVG 1.62 · -5.0% ROI

HOME WIN · N=10 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.88 · -9.9% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=9 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.71 · -5.3% ROI

BTTS · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · +65.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

55%

Hit

-6.1%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

70%

Hit

+18.2%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

46%

Hit

-20.5%

ROI

Match log

59 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

September 2026 // 5 PICKS · 3 HIT · 2 MISS

3 SEPT Forward Madison vs One Knoxville Over 2.5 +7% 1–1 MISS 2 SEPT Westchester SC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves Over 2.5 +13% 0–1 MISS 2 SEPT NY Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise BTTS -18% 1–2 HIT 2 SEPT Fort Wayne vs Richmond Kickers Home -2% 2–0 HIT 2 SEPT Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine HO1.5 3–2 HIT

August 2026 // 10 PICKS · 6 HIT · 4 MISS

30 AUG Union Omaha vs NY Cosmos HO1.5 1–1 MISS 29 AUG Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne BTTS -18% 1–4 HIT 29 AUG Westchester SC vs Spokane Velocity Over 2.5 1–3 HIT 29 AUG Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Boise HO1.5 2–3 HIT 29 AUG Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison BTTS -17% 1–2 HIT 29 AUG Greenville Triumph vs Naples BTTS -12% 4–0 MISS 28 AUG Charlotte Independence vs Alta HO1.5 5–0 HIT 26 AUG Naples vs Union Omaha BTTS -6% 2–0 MISS 23 AUG Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independence Over 2.5 +1% 1–1 MISS 23 AUG Corpus Christi vs Westchester SC Over 2.5 -7% 2–2 HIT