Today / USA - USL League One / Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Greenville Triumph

Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Greenville Triumph Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Chattanooga Red Wolves

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

UPCOMING

Greenville Triumph

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 55% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.8% — a clear edge.

+30.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.4%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.0%1-18.0%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.6%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-18.0%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 46.5% 2.15 +26.0%

Draw 19.6% 30.8% 3.25 -21.8%

Away win 21.8% 35.7% 2.80 -23.4%

Over 2.5 63.7% 57.1% 1.75 +11.5%

Over 3.5 40.5% 37.6% 2.66 +7.7%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% 50.8% 1.97 +30.6%

Away O1.5 25.6% 42.6% 2.35 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 59% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 3–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 3.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chattanooga Red Wolves2.4

Greenville Triumph0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES · PPG 1.73

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH · PPG 0.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chattanooga Red Wolves (H) 58.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +26.0%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -21.8%

Greenville Triumph (A) 21.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chattanooga Red Wolves face Greenville Triumph in USA - USL League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chattanooga Red Wolves a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Greenville Triumph 22%, so Chattanooga Red Wolves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Chattanooga Red Wolves and 0.9 for Greenville Triumph (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chattanooga Red Wolves are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.45 for Greenville Triumph. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +74.7%.

Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Greenville Triumph Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions