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Charlotte Independence vs Alta Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 23:00

Charlotte Independence

PPG 2.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Alta

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 66% chance

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.73 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.1%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.4%1-17.6%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-17.8%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-18.7%4+-24.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% — — —

Draw 18.6% — — —

Away win 19.9% — — —

Over 2.5 62.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 25.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.3%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte Independence2.5

Alta0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE · PPG 2.73

ALTA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.73 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte Independence (H) 61.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alta (A) 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte Independence face Alta in USA - USL League One on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte Independence a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Alta 20%, so Charlotte Independence are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Charlotte Independence and 0.9 for Alta (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte Independence are averaging 2.73 points per game versus 1.00 for Alta. This match finished 5-0.

Charlotte Independence vs Alta Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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