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Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independence Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:00

Forward Madison

PPG 2.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Charlotte Independence

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.2%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.1%1-16.1%1-23.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.2%2-18.6%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.8%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-111.3%4+-26.7%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 50.0% 2.00 +14.6%

Draw 18.7% 29.4% 3.40 -21.9%

Away win 24.0% 34.5% 2.90 -18.2%

Over 2.5 67.3% 66.7% 1.50 +0.9%

Over 3.5 45.7% 48.1% 2.08 -4.9%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 68.7% 60.6% 1.65 +13.4%

Away O1.5 36.4% 48.3% 2.07 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 57% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 6.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 3.6%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forward Madison2.8

Charlotte Independence1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FORWARD MADISON · PPG 2.56

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.56 vs 1.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Forward Madison (H) 57.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +14.6%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.9%

Charlotte Independence (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forward Madison face Charlotte Independence in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forward Madison a 57% chance, the draw 19% and Charlotte Independence 24%, so Forward Madison are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Forward Madison and 1.2 for Charlotte Independence (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forward Madison are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.33 for Charlotte Independence. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independence Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions