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Naples vs Union Omaha Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 23:30

Naples

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Union Omaha

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.2%0-26.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.5%1-112.1%1-28.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.0%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.5%3-13.5%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 25.6% 3.90 +36.1%

Draw 23.7% 27.0% 3.70 -7.4%

Away win 41.5% 57.1% 1.75 -27.4%

Over 2.5 58.6% 60.6% 1.65 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

BTTS 59.9% 63.7% 1.57 -6.0%

Home O1.5 37.2% 36.4% 2.75 +2.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 59.9% 1.67 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.9%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naples1.3

Union Omaha1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPLES · PPG 1.60

UNION OMAHA · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Naples (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +36.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.4%

Union Omaha (A) 41.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naples face Union Omaha in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naples a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Union Omaha 42%, so Union Omaha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Naples and 1.4 for Union Omaha (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naples are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.64 for Union Omaha. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Naples vs Union Omaha Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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