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Forward Madison vs One Knoxville Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 00:00

Forward Madison

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

UPCOMING

One Knoxville

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.1%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.9%1-110.1%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.1%3-16.5%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.1%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 45.5% 2.20 +20.1%

Draw 23.5% 29.9% 3.35 -12.8%

Away win 21.9% 34.7% 2.88 -22.2%

Over 2.5 56.3% 55.6% 1.80 +1.3%

Over 3.5 34.9% 33.3% 3.00 +4.7%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 48.8% 2.05 +14.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 40.8% 2.45 -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forward Madison2.0

One Knoxville0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FORWARD MADISON · PPG 2.40

ONE KNOXVILLE · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Forward Madison (H) 54.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +20.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.8%

One Knoxville (A) 21.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forward Madison face One Knoxville in USA - USL League One on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forward Madison a 55% chance, the draw 24% and One Knoxville 22%, so Forward Madison are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Forward Madison and 0.9 for One Knoxville (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forward Madison are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.80 for One Knoxville. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +39.0%.

Forward Madison vs One Knoxville Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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