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Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Portland Hearts of Pine

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fort Wayne

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.2%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.3%1-111.7%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.6%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.2%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 42.0% 2.38 +23.5%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 23.9% 42.0% 2.38 -25.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 40.2% 2.49 -21.6%

BTTS 53.9% 65.4% 1.53 -17.5%

Home O1.5 48.9% 49.0% 2.04 -0.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 48.8% 2.05 -33.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.9%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Hearts of Pine1.6

Fort Wayne1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE · PPG 1.20

FORT WAYNE · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portland Hearts of Pine (H) 51.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +23.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Fort Wayne (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Hearts of Pine face Fort Wayne in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Hearts of Pine a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Fort Wayne 24%, so Portland Hearts of Pine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Portland Hearts of Pine and 1.0 for Fort Wayne (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Hearts of Pine are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.09 for Fort Wayne. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 1-4.

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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