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Fort Wayne vs Richmond Kickers Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 23:30

Fort Wayne

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

UPCOMING

Richmond Kickers

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.1%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.0%1-17.3%1-22.2%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-18.7%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-16.9%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-17.2%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.5% 69.0% 1.45 -2.1%

Draw 17.9% 22.2% 4.50 -11.7%

Away win 14.7% 19.0% 5.25 -13.7%

Over 2.5 60.2% 67.6% 1.48 -10.9%

Over 3.5 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

BTTS 50.4% 63.7% 1.57 -20.9%

Home O1.5 66.3% 70.4% 1.42 -5.9%

Away O1.5 15.4% 33.3% 3.00 -32.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob50.4%

H 68% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 3–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fort Wayne2.4

Richmond Kickers0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FORT WAYNE · PPG 1.67

RICHMOND KICKERS · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.76 for Home, form 1.67 vs 0.36 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fort Wayne (H) 67.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -2.1%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -11.7%

Richmond Kickers (A) 14.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fort Wayne face Richmond Kickers in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fort Wayne a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Richmond Kickers 15%, so Fort Wayne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Fort Wayne and 0.6 for Richmond Kickers (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fort Wayne are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.36 for Richmond Kickers.

Fort Wayne vs Richmond Kickers Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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