Today / USA - USL League One / Union Omaha vs NY Cosmos

Union Omaha vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:00

Union Omaha

PPG 2.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

NY Cosmos

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-11.5%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.4%1-14.7%1-21.8%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.1%2-17.5%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-17.9%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-018.5%4+-113.7%4+-25.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.6% 76.9% 1.30 -10.8%

Draw 15.8% 20.8% 4.80 -14.5%

Away win 15.7% 14.3% 7.00 +5.9%

Over 2.5 68.2% 71.4% 1.40 -4.5%

Over 3.5 45.6% 52.6% 1.90 -13.4%

BTTS 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Home O1.5 77.3% 76.9% 1.30 +0.5%

Away O1.5 18.2% 29.9% 3.34 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.9%

H 69% / xG 3.2-0.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.7%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 1–1✓ 4.7%

#4 4–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Omaha3.2

NY Cosmos0.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION OMAHA · PPG 2.45

NY COSMOS · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.42 for Home, form 2.45 vs 0.36 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Union Omaha (H) 68.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -10.8%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -14.5%

NY Cosmos (A) 15.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Omaha face NY Cosmos in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Omaha a 69% chance, the draw 16% and NY Cosmos 16%, so Union Omaha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Union Omaha and 0.7 for NY Cosmos (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Omaha are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 0.36 for NY Cosmos. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Union Omaha vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions