Today / USA - USL League One / Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison

Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Richmond Kickers

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Forward Madison

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-111.4%0-28.2%0-33.9%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.7%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.8%2-16.9%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.5%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.0% 30.3% 3.30 -1.0%

Draw 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -8.7%

Away win 44.1% 52.4% 1.91 -15.8%

Over 2.5 52.0% 60.6% 1.65 -14.2%

Over 3.5 30.9% 41.3% 2.42 -25.2%

BTTS 54.3% 65.4% 1.53 -16.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 40.8% 2.45 -24.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 57.8% 1.73 -29.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.3%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 1–2✓ 9.0%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Richmond Kickers1.1

Forward Madison1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RICHMOND KICKERS · PPG 1.50

FORWARD MADISON · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Richmond Kickers (H) 30.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.0%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.7%

Forward Madison (A) 44.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Richmond Kickers face Forward Madison in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Richmond Kickers a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Forward Madison 44%, so Forward Madison are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Richmond Kickers and 1.4 for Forward Madison (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Richmond Kickers are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.45 for Forward Madison. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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