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Greenville Triumph vs Naples Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Greenville Triumph

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Naples

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.1%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.5%1-111.0%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-15.9%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Draw 23.5% 31.3% 3.20 -14.9%

Away win 26.3% 36.4% 2.75 -16.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.1% 1.75 -6.4%

Over 3.5 33.7% 35.6% 2.81 -5.3%

BTTS 54.9% 62.5% 1.60 -12.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 49.0% 2.04 -0.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 41.2% 2.43 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.9%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greenville Triumph1.8

Naples1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH · PPG 1.50

NAPLES · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Greenville Triumph (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +10.4%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.9%

Naples (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Greenville Triumph face Naples in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greenville Triumph a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Naples 26%, so Greenville Triumph are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Greenville Triumph and 1.0 for Naples (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greenville Triumph are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.64 for Naples. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Greenville Triumph vs Naples Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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