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NY Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 23:30

NY Cosmos

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDD

UPCOMING

Sarasota Paradise

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.2%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.4%1-111.7%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.6%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.5%3-15.2%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 47.6% 2.10 +9.2%

Draw 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Away win 24.0% 34.5% 2.90 -18.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.5% 2.60 -17.6%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 48.1% 54.1% 1.85 -11.0%

Away O1.5 26.1% 44.4% 2.25 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NY Cosmos1.6

Sarasota Paradise0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NY COSMOS · PPG 1.40

SARASOTA PARADISE · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NY Cosmos (H) 52.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +9.2%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Sarasota Paradise (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

NY Cosmos face Sarasota Paradise in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NY Cosmos a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Sarasota Paradise 24%, so NY Cosmos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for NY Cosmos and 0.9 for Sarasota Paradise (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NY Cosmos are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.50 for Sarasota Paradise.

NY Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions