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Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Boise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Chattanooga Red Wolves

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Boise

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 43.1% — a clear edge.

+52.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.4%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.1%1-18.0%1-24.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.7%3-17.6%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-17.9%4+-24.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 36.4% 2.75 +53.2%

Draw 21.0% 31.3% 3.20 -19.7%

Away win 23.3% 45.5% 2.20 -29.2%

Over 2.5 65.1% 57.8% 1.73 +12.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 37.0% 2.70 +16.6%

BTTS 60.8% 63.7% 1.57 -4.5%

Home O1.5 65.8% 43.1% 2.32 +52.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% 49.8% 2.01 -33.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–2 4.6%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chattanooga Red Wolves2.4

Boise1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES · PPG 1.90

BOISE · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chattanooga Red Wolves (H) 55.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +53.2%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.7%

Boise (A) 23.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -29.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chattanooga Red Wolves face Boise in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chattanooga Red Wolves a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Boise 23%, so Chattanooga Red Wolves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Chattanooga Red Wolves and 1.1 for Boise (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chattanooga Red Wolves are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.20 for Boise. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +90.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Boise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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