Today / USA - USL League One / Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine

Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 23:30

Charlotte Independence

PPG 2.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

UPCOMING

Portland Hearts of Pine

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.4%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.8%1-14.5%1-22.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.9%2-17.4%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-18.1%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-016.4%4+-115.4%4+-27.2%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.9% 73.5% 1.36 +4.6%

Draw 15.2% 20.8% 4.80 -16.2%

Away win 7.9% 16.7% 6.00 -31.6%

Over 2.5 69.3% 73.5% 1.36 -5.8%

Over 3.5 49.9% 51.8% 1.93 -3.7%

BTTS 57.0% 66.7% 1.50 -14.5%

Home O1.5 77.9% 76.9% 1.30 +1.3%

Away O1.5 26.1% 33.9% 2.95 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob57.0%

H 77% / xG 3.3-0.9 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 2–1 7.4%

#5 4–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte Independence3.3

Portland Hearts of Pine0.9

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.3% · O3.5 PROB 49.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE · PPG 2.75

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE · PPG 0.92

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.36 for Home, form 2.75 vs 0.92 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte Independence (H) 76.9%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +4.6%

Draw 15.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -16.2%

Portland Hearts of Pine (A) 7.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte Independence face Portland Hearts of Pine in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte Independence a 77% chance, the draw 15% and Portland Hearts of Pine 8%, so Charlotte Independence are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Charlotte Independence and 0.9 for Portland Hearts of Pine (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte Independence are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.92 for Portland Hearts of Pine. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +24.8%.

Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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