Today / USA - USL League One / Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independence

Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independence Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:00

Union Omaha

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLD

UPCOMING

Charlotte Independence

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.2%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.0%1-18.9%1-25.7%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.4%3-16.9%3-24.4%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-16.0%4+-23.9%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 57.1% 1.75 -12.3%

Draw 21.2% 27.8% 3.60 -14.2%

Away win 28.8% 27.8% 3.60 +2.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 41.5% 50.0% 2.00 -17.0%

BTTS 61.5% 71.4% 1.40 -13.9%

Home O1.5 61.0% 66.2% 1.51 -7.9%

Away O1.5 37.7% 45.0% 2.22 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 5.7%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Omaha2.1

Charlotte Independence1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION OMAHA · PPG 2.33

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Omaha (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -12.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.2%

Charlotte Independence (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Omaha face Charlotte Independence in USA - USL League One on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Omaha a 50% chance, the draw 21% and Charlotte Independence 29%, so Union Omaha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Union Omaha and 1.3 for Charlotte Independence (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Omaha are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.30 for Charlotte Independence. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.6%.

Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independence Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions