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Corpus Christi vs Forward Madison Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:30

Corpus Christi

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

UPCOMING

Forward Madison

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-110.0%0-26.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.7%1-112.9%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-18.3%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.0%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 40.0% 2.50 -3.8%

Draw 26.0% 33.3% 3.00 -13.2%

Away win 35.4% 40.0% 2.50 -11.5%

Over 2.5 51.9% 52.6% 1.90 -1.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.0% 2.78 -12.2%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 38.4% 44.6% 2.24 -14.0%

Away O1.5 35.3% 45.7% 2.19 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corpus Christi1.3

Forward Madison1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CORPUS CHRISTI · PPG 1.73

FORWARD MADISON · PPG 1.58

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Corpus Christi (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -3.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.2%

Forward Madison (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corpus Christi face Forward Madison in USA - USL League One on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corpus Christi a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Forward Madison 35%, so Corpus Christi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Corpus Christi and 1.2 for Forward Madison (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corpus Christi are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.58 for Forward Madison.

Corpus Christi vs Forward Madison Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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