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Naples vs Boise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Naples

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

UPCOMING

Boise

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.0%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.8%1-111.3%1-27.3%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.2%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.9%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 34.5% 2.90 +27.9%

Draw 23.8% 31.3% 3.20 -14.3%

Away win 32.1% 47.6% 2.10 -32.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.8% 1.73 +3.1%

Over 3.5 36.4% 37.0% 2.70 -1.7%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 48.1% 41.2% 2.43 +16.9%

Away O1.5 38.7% 51.3% 1.95 -24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naples1.6

Boise1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPLES · PPG 1.73

BOISE · PPG 1.36

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Naples (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +27.9%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.3%

Boise (A) 32.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naples face Boise in USA - USL League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naples a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Boise 32%, so Naples are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Naples and 1.3 for Boise (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naples are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.36 for Boise. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +23.2%.

Naples vs Boise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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