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Fort Wayne vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Fort Wayne

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWW

UPCOMING

NY Cosmos

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDL

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+13.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-12.9%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.4%1-17.2%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-18.9%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.6%3-17.4%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-18.2%4+-22.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.2% 59.9% 1.67 +13.9%

Draw 17.0% 28.6% 3.50 -24.3%

Away win 14.8% 25.0% 4.00 -24.5%

Over 2.5 62.5% 63.7% 1.57 -1.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 41.2% 2.43 -2.3%

BTTS 52.9% 62.5% 1.60 -15.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 62.9% 1.59 +5.4%

Away O1.5 18.8% 36.8% 2.72 -29.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.9%

H 68% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 3–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 1–1 7.2%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fort Wayne2.5

NY Cosmos0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FORT WAYNE · PPG 1.80

NY COSMOS · PPG 0.42

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

62%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 1.80 vs 0.42 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fort Wayne (H) 68.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +13.9%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -24.3%

NY Cosmos (A) 14.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fort Wayne face NY Cosmos in USA - USL League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fort Wayne a 68% chance, the draw 17% and NY Cosmos 15%, so Fort Wayne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Fort Wayne and 0.7 for NY Cosmos (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fort Wayne are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.42 for NY Cosmos. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +21.7%.

Fort Wayne vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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