Eerste Divisie

NETHERLANDS · 22 MATCHES TRACKED · 13 APR 2026 – 24 APR 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 19 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

52.6%

1X2

10/19

57.9%

O/U 2.5

11/19

52.6%

BTTS

10/19

26.3%

Exact score

5/19

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

47.4%

Hit rate

9/19

1.43

Avg odds

-32.3%

ROI

-6.1u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=11 54.5% HIT · AVG 1.41 · -22.0% ROI

BTTS · N=8 37.5% HIT · AVG 1.44 · -46.4% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

33%

Hit

-53.3%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

60%

Hit

-16.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

50%

Hit

-27.3%

ROI

Match log

19 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

April 2026 // 15 PICKS · 7 HIT · 8 MISS

24 APR FC Emmen vs De Graafschap Over 2.5 +10% 1–0 MISS 24 APR Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht BTTS -7% 0–2 MISS 24 APR RKC Waalwijk vs Jong PSV Over 2.5 +5% 4–1 HIT 24 APR Jong AZ vs Roda JC Over 2.5 +3% 2–0 MISS 24 APR Cambuur vs Vitesse Arnhem Over 2.5 -6% 2–1 HIT 24 APR FC Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag Over 2.5 +3% 1–3 HIT 24 APR FC Dordrecht vs Willem II BTTS -27% 1–2 HIT 24 APR FC Eindhoven vs Helmond Sport BTTS -9% 1–0 MISS 20 APR FC Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht Over 2.5 +11% 1–1 MISS 17 APR Willem II vs Jong AZ BTTS -17% 3–0 MISS 17 APR Vitesse Arnhem vs MVV Maastricht Over 2.5 -18% 0–0 MISS 17 APR ADO Den Haag vs RKC Waalwijk Over 2.5 -8% 5–1 HIT 17 APR Almere City vs FC Dordrecht BTTS -14% 4–1 HIT 17 APR De Graafschap vs Cambuur Over 2.5 -5% 3–1 HIT 17 APR Helmond Sport vs VVV BTTS -24% 2–0 MISS