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De Graafschap vs Almere City FC Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:30

De Graafschap

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLL ·

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Almere City FC

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.6%0-25.1%0-33.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.1%1-19.3%1-28.5%1-35.1%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.7%2-27.0%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.3%3-14.3%3-23.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.6%4+-22.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 45.5% 2.20 -23.2%

Draw 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Away win 43.3% 36.4% 2.75 +19.1%

Over 2.5 64.8% 74.1% 1.35 -12.5%

Over 3.5 43.2% 52.6% 1.90 -17.9%

BTTS 63.1% 76.9% 1.30 -18.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 61.7% 1.62 -20.8%

Away O1.5 51.5% 55.6% 1.80 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

A 43% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

De Graafschap1.7

Almere City FC1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DE GRAAFSCHAP · PPG 1.36

ALMERE CITY FC · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

De Graafschap (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Almere City FC (A) 43.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

De Graafschap face Almere City FC in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives De Graafschap a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Almere City FC 43%, so Almere City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for De Graafschap and 1.8 for Almere City FC (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, De Graafschap are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.56 for Almere City FC. This match finished 1-4.

De Graafschap vs Almere City FC Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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