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Heracles vs De Graafschap Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Heracles

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

UPCOMING

De Graafschap

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.2%0-21.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.1%1-16.1%1-24.5%1-32.2%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.2%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.0%3-17.4%3-25.5%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-19.7%4+-27.2%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Draw 15.9% 20.0% 5.00 -12.3%

Away win 21.6% 16.1% 6.20 +20.3%

Over 2.5 72.6% 76.9% 1.30 -5.6%

Over 3.5 52.2% 55.6% 1.80 -6.0%

BTTS 63.5% 70.4% 1.42 -9.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 78.1% 1.28 -15.1%

Away O1.5 42.2% 37.7% 2.65 +11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 62% / xG 2.7-1.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 6.1%

#4 2–0 5.5%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heracles2.7

De Graafschap1.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HERACLES · PPG 1.75

DE GRAAFSCHAP · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Heracles (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -12.5%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.3%

De Graafschap (A) 21.6%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heracles face De Graafschap in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heracles a 63% chance, the draw 16% and De Graafschap 22%, so Heracles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Heracles and 1.5 for De Graafschap (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heracles are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.21 for De Graafschap. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.2%.

Heracles vs De Graafschap Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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