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Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 8 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 18:00

Jong AZ

PPG 0.72 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jong Utrecht

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.7%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.8%1-19.4%1-26.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.5%3-16.3%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.0%4+-23.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 63.7% 1.57 -18.7%

Draw 21.1% 22.2% 4.50 -3.0%

Away win 27.0% 20.8% 4.80 +17.8%

Over 2.5 66.8% 74.1% 1.35 -9.8%

Over 3.5 45.0% 54.1% 1.85 -16.8%

BTTS 63.5% 72.5% 1.38 -12.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 73.5% 1.36 -24.1%

Away O1.5 42.2% 41.7% 2.40 +1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.4%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong AZ2.0

Jong Utrecht1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG AZ · PPG 0.72

JONG UTRECHT · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jong AZ (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -18.7%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -3.0%

Jong Utrecht (A) 27.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong AZ face Jong Utrecht in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong AZ a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Jong Utrecht 27%, so Jong AZ are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Jong AZ and 1.4 for Jong Utrecht (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong AZ are averaging 0.72 points per game versus 0.79 for Jong Utrecht. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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