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Emmen vs FC Volendam Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Emmen

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWL ·

UPCOMING

FC Volendam

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.1%0-23.6%0-32.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.7%1-18.3%1-27.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.7%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.1%3-15.5%3-24.8%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.3%4+-23.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 41.7% 2.40 +3.7%

Draw 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -13.0%

Away win 35.9% 39.2% 2.55 -8.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 69.4% 1.44 -1.5%

Over 3.5 49.4% 48.8% 2.05 +1.3%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 56.5% 1.77 -1.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.1% 1.85 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 43% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emmen2.0

FC Volendam1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EMMEN · PPG 1.94

FC VOLENDAM · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Emmen (H) 43.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +3.7%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -13.0%

FC Volendam (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emmen face FC Volendam in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emmen a 43% chance, the draw 21% and FC Volendam 36%, so Emmen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Emmen and 1.7 for FC Volendam (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emmen are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.07 for FC Volendam. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.4%.

Emmen vs FC Volendam Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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