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Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Ajax Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 8 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 18:00

Jong PSV U21

PPG 1.97 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Jong Ajax

PPG 0.74 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.2%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.2%1-17.6%1-25.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.0%2-18.9%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.7%3-17.0%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-17.1%4+-25.2%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 64.5% 1.55 -18.9%

Draw 20.5% 21.7% 4.60 -3.4%

Away win 27.2% 20.8% 4.80 +18.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 76.9% 1.30 -11.1%

Over 3.5 49.4% 57.1% 1.75 -13.6%

BTTS 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 75.2% 1.33 -11.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1✓ 7.6%

#3 1–2 5.6%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong PSV U212.3

Jong Ajax1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG PSV U21 · PPG 1.97

JONG AJAX · PPG 0.74

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jong PSV U21 (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -18.9%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -3.4%

Jong Ajax (A) 27.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong PSV U21 face Jong Ajax in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong PSV U21 a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Jong Ajax 27%, so Jong PSV U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Jong PSV U21 and 1.5 for Jong Ajax (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.97 points per game versus 0.74 for Jong Ajax. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Ajax Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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