Today / Netherlands - Eerste Divisie / Emmen vs Jong AZ

Emmen vs Jong AZ Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Emmen

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWL ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Jong AZ

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.8%0-22.5%0-31.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.5%1-16.5%1-26.0%1-33.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.7%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.3%3-16.1%3-25.6%3-33.4%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-16.2%4+-25.7%4+-33.5%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 42.0% 2.38 +15.2%

Draw 22.4% 27.0% 3.70 -10.3%

Away win 29.2% 38.2% 2.62 -14.1%

Over 2.5 67.3% 69.0% 1.45 -2.4%

Over 3.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

BTTS 69.0% 73.5% 1.36 -6.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 56.5% 1.77 +15.2%

Away O1.5 54.0% 54.1% 1.85 -0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.0%

H 48% / xG 2.4-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.5%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 3–1✓ 6.1%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emmen2.4

Jong AZ1.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EMMEN · PPG 1.77

JONG AZ · PPG 1.68

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Emmen (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +15.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.3%

Jong AZ (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emmen face Jong AZ in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emmen a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Jong AZ 29%, so Emmen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Emmen and 1.8 for Jong AZ (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emmen are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.68 for Jong AZ. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Emmen vs Jong AZ Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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