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Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Helmond Sport

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDL ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Waalwijk

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.3%0-25.8%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.5%1-111.8%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-18.4%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.0%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 28.6% 3.50 +34.1%

Draw 26.4% 27.8% 3.60 -3.0%

Away win 35.3% 51.3% 1.95 -31.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 38.5% 2.60 +4.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 55.6% 1.80 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.0%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helmond Sport1.4

Waalwijk1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HELMOND SPORT · PPG 1.43

WAALWIJK · PPG 1.35

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Helmond Sport (H) 38.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +34.1%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.0%

Waalwijk (A) 35.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helmond Sport face Waalwijk in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helmond Sport a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Waalwijk 35%, so Helmond Sport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Helmond Sport and 1.4 for Waalwijk (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helmond Sport are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.35 for Waalwijk. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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