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Vitesse vs FC OSS Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Vitesse

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLW ·

UPCOMING

FC OSS

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.7%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.6%1-26.1%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.2%3-16.0%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.2%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 63.7% 1.57 -17.9%

Draw 23.6% 23.8% 4.20 -0.5%

Away win 24.0% 20.0% 5.00 +12.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

BTTS 59.0% 65.4% 1.53 -9.7%

Home O1.5 55.8% 67.6% 1.48 -17.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 35.1% 2.85 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.0%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitesse1.8

FC OSS1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VITESSE · PPG 1.18

FC OSS · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vitesse (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -17.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.5%

FC OSS (A) 24.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitesse face FC OSS in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitesse a 52% chance, the draw 24% and FC OSS 24%, so Vitesse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vitesse and 1.2 for FC OSS (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitesse are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.94 for FC OSS. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.0%.

Vitesse vs FC OSS Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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