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Vitesse vs Almere City FC Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Vitesse

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLW ·

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Almere City FC

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.8%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.2%1-110.3%1-27.4%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Draw 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Away win 29.4% 32.3% 3.10 -5.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 41.7% 2.40 -12.2%

BTTS 61.3% 67.6% 1.48 -9.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 56.5% 1.77 -13.6%

Away O1.5 41.2% 44.4% 2.25 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitesse1.8

Almere City FC1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VITESSE · PPG 1.37

ALMERE CITY FC · PPG 1.32

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vitesse (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -3.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

Almere City FC (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitesse face Almere City FC in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitesse a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Almere City FC 29%, so Vitesse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vitesse and 1.4 for Almere City FC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitesse are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.32 for Almere City FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Vitesse vs Almere City FC Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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