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Dordrecht vs Roda Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Dordrecht

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLL ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Roda

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.3%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.2%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.7%3-14.4%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 39.2% 2.55 +14.5%

Draw 26.3% 28.6% 3.50 -4.8%

Away win 28.8% 39.2% 2.55 -15.9%

Over 2.5 50.8% 58.8% 1.70 -13.6%

Over 3.5 30.9% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

BTTS 54.5% 64.5% 1.55 -15.5%

Home O1.5 40.0% 46.5% 2.15 -14.0%

Away O1.5 36.3% 46.5% 2.15 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dordrecht1.5

Roda1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DORDRECHT · PPG 1.59

RODA · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dordrecht (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +14.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.8%

Roda (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dordrecht face Roda in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dordrecht a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Roda 29%, so Dordrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dordrecht and 1.2 for Roda (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dordrecht are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.44 for Roda. This match finished 0-1.

Dordrecht vs Roda Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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