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Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Almere City FC

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWW ·

UPCOMING

Jong Ajax

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.5%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.3%1-16.6%1-24.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.0%2-18.8%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.2%3-17.8%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-19.9%4+-26.3%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.3% 69.4% 1.44 -10.3%

Draw 17.5% 20.8% 4.80 -9.6%

Away win 20.2% 17.2% 5.80 +10.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 78.1% 1.28 -12.4%

Over 3.5 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 78.1% 1.28 -15.1%

Away O1.5 36.8% 40.8% 2.45 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 62% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.6%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almere City FC2.7

Jong Ajax1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMERE CITY FC · PPG 1.90

JONG AJAX · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Almere City FC (H) 62.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -10.3%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -9.6%

Jong Ajax (A) 20.2%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almere City FC face Jong Ajax in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almere City FC a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Jong Ajax 20%, so Almere City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Almere City FC and 1.3 for Jong Ajax (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almere City FC are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.77 for Jong Ajax.

Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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