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Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Helmond Sport

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDL ·

UPCOMING

VVV Venlo

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.6%0-25.9%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.1%1-111.1%1-28.7%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.1%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.5%3-14.0%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 39.2% 2.55 -12.5%

Draw 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

Away win 42.9% 39.2% 2.55 +9.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 41.7% 2.40 -12.2%

BTTS 61.1% 69.0% 1.45 -11.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 50.0% 2.00 -20.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.1%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helmond Sport1.5

VVV Venlo1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HELMOND SPORT · PPG 1.37

VVV VENLO · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Helmond Sport (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -12.5%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.9%

VVV Venlo (A) 42.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helmond Sport face VVV Venlo in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helmond Sport a 34% chance, the draw 23% and VVV Venlo 43%, so VVV Venlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Helmond Sport and 1.6 for VVV Venlo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helmond Sport are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.48 for VVV Venlo.

Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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