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VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:45

VVV Venlo

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

De Graafschap

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.3%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.6%1-18.7%1-26.8%1-33.6%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.8%3-16.0%3-24.7%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.9%4+-23.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 34.5% 2.90 +41.2%

Draw 22.3% 28.6% 3.50 -13.2%

Away win 29.0% 46.5% 2.15 -22.6%

Over 2.5 65.0% 69.4% 1.44 -6.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 47.6% 2.10 -8.6%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 57.2% 50.0% 2.00 +14.4%

Away O1.5 48.5% 59.9% 1.67 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1✓ 8.8%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VVV Venlo2.0

De Graafschap1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VVV VENLO · PPG 1.18

DE GRAAFSCHAP · PPG 1.42

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

VVV Venlo (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +41.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.2%

De Graafschap (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

VVV Venlo face De Graafschap in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VVV Venlo a 49% chance, the draw 22% and De Graafschap 29%, so VVV Venlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for VVV Venlo and 1.6 for De Graafschap (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VVV Venlo are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.42 for De Graafschap. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +33.1%. This match finished 2-1.

VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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